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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-2018-101
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-2018-101
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 09 Oct 2018

Research article | 09 Oct 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Solid Earth (SE).

Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering: The 2016 MW 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake

Sebastian von Specht1,2, Ugur Ozturk1,2,3, Georg Veh1, Fabrice Cotton2,1, and Oliver Korup1 Sebastian von Specht et al.
  • 1University of Potsdam, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam-Golm, Germany
  • 2Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e. V., Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wavefield surrounding the fault during an earthquake. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (MW 7.1) in central Kyūshū (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1,500 earthquake-triggered landslides as function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides are more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors can sufficiently explain the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide headscarps coincide with elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground motion model that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern consistent with the overall landslide distribution. The spatial landslide distribution is primarily influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies <2Hz. This azimuth-dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.

Sebastian von Specht et al.
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Sebastian von Specht et al.
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Short summary
We show the landslide response to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (MW 7.1) in central Kyūshū (Japan). Landslides are concentrated to the northeast of the rupture, coinciding with the propagation direction of the earthquake. This azimuthal variation of the landslide concentration is linked to the seicmic rupture process itself and not to classical landslide susceptibility factors. We propose a new ground motion model that links the seismic radiation pattern with the landslide distribution.
We show the landslide response to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (MW 7.1) in central Kyūshū...
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